Around 80 per cent polling in the just-held bypolls is the highest ever recorded in the recent times. This has set off a debate on who will win in the case of heavy voter turnout.
Traditional wisdom says the extra votes that come over and above the usual voting percentage benefit the ‘rebels’ or the challengers. The average vote helps the ruling party or the one that has a pan-Indian presence like the Congress party.
“Every new voter is inclined to vote for a new party,” observed late K Ramachandran, a CPI leader, who had studied voter behaviour for years. Voting pattern and analysis made since, by several, also back this theory. If this is true, in the current context, a chunk of extra votes, that is 20 per cent votes, would go to the YSRC kitty. Little wonder illegal bookmakers are finding few takers for other parties. Heavy betting is reported for the win of the ceiling fan. “It’s apt. In this heat, it’s the fan that brings relief,” remarked a Congress-turned YSRC supporter.
All pollsters are predicting a landslide win for the YSR party for two reasons — the sudden incarceration of its leader Jagan Mohan Reddy and his mother going out in the hot sun to appeal to other mothers. A mother understands another mother. This may be one reason for the heavy turnout of women voters in the Assembly constituencies. But the chief electoral officer Banwarlal takes credit for the heavy polling. “The record polling was due to the door-to-door distribution of voter slips by the election officials.”
While speculations are rife on what would happen in the case of YSRC sweeping the polls, latest reports say the Congress has given a courtesy call to Chandrababu Naidu and sought his help to steady the rocking ruling boat in the event of the Jagan bandwagon sounding threatening sirens.
However, of all the 18 Assembly constituencies where by-elections have taken place, Parkal is said to be the most keenly-watched seat where betting is taking an interesting turn. Earlier, it was the TRS or the BJP that was the favourite but after the arrest of Jagan, many are putting their money on YSRC with the hope that the sympathy wave will drive the Jagan force past the post.
About the Author (Author Profile)
PK Surendran is senior editor at Postnoon.